Antibiotic resistant infections may cause 39 million deaths by 2050
The Lancet published recently a landmark study, which is the first comprehensive analysis of the global impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts extending to 20501. This systematic analysis provides data and challenges posed by AMR across 204 countries.
Current situation with AMR
In 2021, AMR directly caused 1.14 million deaths and was associated with 4.71 million deaths globally. Between 1991-2021, resistance to Carbapenems in Gram-negative bacteria increased substantially. Also, deaths caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) doubled. The study also reveals high variability in AMR burden between countries and age groups. A key finding was that deaths among children under five years old decreased by a remarkable 50% during this period, mainly due to effective global vaccination programs and improved hygiene, and access to clean water and sanitation. That was also an excellent reminder that infection prevention is highly effective in reducing antibiotic resistant infections. In contrast, deaths among those aged 25 years and older increased significantly, with an 80% rise in mortality among people aged 70 years and above.
Future projections
The study evaluated that by 2050, AMR could be responsible for 8.22 million annual AMR -associated deaths and 1.91 million deaths directly attributable to AMR, if no significant changes are made. Cumulatively, AMR is projected to cause 39 million direct deaths to AMR and 169 million deaths attributable to AMR between 2025-2050. The regions expected to bear the highest burden are south Asia, southeast Asia, and east Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Because of the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, a multi-faceted approach is crucial. This includes strengthening infection prevention measures, promoting vaccination, reducing the over and misuse of antibiotics, and accelerating development of new antibiotics. These strategies aim to significantly reduce the projected number of AMR-related deaths by 2050. Existing infection prevention methods, including vaccination programs and investments in water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure, remain highly effective in lowering AMR burden.
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References
- Naghavi M et al. Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050. Lancet 2024; published online September 16. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01867-1
- Gentile I et al. The role of CRP POC testing in the fight against antibiotic overuse in European primary care: Recommendations from a European Expert Panel. Diagnostics 2023; 13:320. doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics13020320